Yes Osborne borrowed more than Labour. Why? Because Labour left a massive deficit.

Earlier tonight a Labour Councillor in Ipswich, Stephen Connelly, a candidate on Thursday, claimed that George Osborne has borrowed more in four years than Labour borrowed in thirteen years, with the implication that this is somehow a revelation. I can’t show you the tweet because he has since blocked me, which is rather surprising since I don’t recall ever tweeting him anything. The benefit of the doubt suggests it was a mistake.

I’ve seen this fact put about by Labour peeps for many months, and it never fails to irritate me.

Yes, George Osborne has added more £pounds to the National Debt than Labour did in thirteen years. He did this because, in May 2010, he inherited an absolutely immense and unsustainable public spending deficit, and because of a variety of factors, including a lacklustre recovery in the rest of Europe (and until recently in the United States of America), he was unable to fulfil his pledge to eliminate the deficit by the end of the last Parliament.

I would have absolutely no problem with Labour supporters relentlessly reminding Tories that Mr Osborne promised two fiscal developments during this Parliament and missed them both – deficit reduction and maintaining the UK’s credit rating.

But by highlighting the increase in the debt – which is undoubtedly very worrying and should focus any incoming Chancellor – it implies that these people do not understand basic economics and, like Ed Miliband, do not accept that Labour overspent when they were last in Government.

One of the BBC QT audience – not one that Labour have yet managed to prove as a Tory plant – said quite bluntly that if he got to the end of the week and didn’t have any money left over for a pint, he’d overspent. Multi-millionaire Oxford Graduate and Class Warrior Ed Miliband didn’t seem to realise how damaging that would be to him.

I’ve had that line repeated back to me in recent days. Despite being unwell, and almost restricted to bed, I’ve heard it said in the pharmacy at the end of the road (and I live in a pretty Labour area, my local councillor, Hamil Clarke, was out delivering pledge letters this afternoon to almost every house in the street) and in the Co-op.

When a line from a politician gets what is known as “cut through” it can define them. Of course the Cameron “career defining” line will probably define him entirely if he loses on Thursday. But for Labour, the big fear remains that they simply do not have it in them to run our economy.

Unpredictable? Anyone who says they know what’s happening is lying.

Less than three weeks to go until polling day and this is still one of the most unpredictable elections anyone can remember. Indeed Ed Balls quipped, on a visit to Ipswich yesterday, that even when people were wrong in the past, they were collectively wrong. Wilson was incorrectly expected to win in 1970. Kinnock likewise in 1992. Cameron was expected to get a majority in 2010.

Anyone who tells you they know what will happen in this election is lying. But what we can do is start to predict individual seats. There are some really exciting changes happening, which will make election night one of tears of joy and anguish.

Here are my tips for seats that will – or won’t – change hands unexpectedly.

Castle Point – The Tories have held Castle Point for every election since 1983, with the exception of 1997 when Labour took the seat for four short years. Bob Spink quit the Tories in 2008 and briefly joined UKIP, before resigning the whip and sitting as an independent MP. He lost to Tory Rebecca Harris in 2010. Yet UKIP’s Jamie Huntman might well be on course to become a UKIP MP, in what has suddenly become a close fight between the Tories and UKIP. UKIP gain.

Harlow – This seat is a classic bell weather seat. Labour hold it when they are in Government, the Tories when they’re in power. In 2010 Robert Halfon won the seat from Bill Rammell and many expected it to go back to Labour in this election. But Mr Halfon has been an outspoken and populist MP and privately some Labour officials have conceded that they’ve lost Harlow. Tory hold.

Norwich South – In 2010 the Liberal Democrats narrowly beat sitting Labour MP Charles Clarke, leaving Norwich unrepresented by a Labour MP for the first time in decades. However in a defining example of the dangers of coalition for the junior partner, the Liberal Democrat candidate Simon Wright is likely to come third – or even fourth – in his defence of his seat. This seat is a competitive race between former BBC journalist Clive Lewis for Labour and the Green Party’s Lesley Grahame. It’s apparently very tight, but I suspect that Labour will have done enough here. Labour gain.

Clacton – There is a rule in politics that personal votes are rarely worth more than a handful of votes. Clacton is the seat that proves that every rule has an exception. Douglas Carswell won this seat with 53% of the vote as a Tory in 2010. He then won the seat in a by-election he caused to become UKIP’s first elected MP – with 59% of the vote. Everyone else has given up on this seat, and it would be a massive shock for Mr Carswell not to be returned as the next MP for Clacton – a shock akin to David Cameron losing his Witney seat to the National Health Alliance party. UKIP hold.

Rochester – I’ve heard rumours that there are Tories at Conservative Campaign Headquarters who are so angry with Mark Reckless that they’d be happy to have lost the General Election to a Labour majority, so long as Mark Reckless lost his seat. The Tories have flung everything they have at this seat, and with UKIP unable to maintain the by-election atmosphere they had six months ago, Rochester Castle is likely to be breached. Tory gain.

Finchley & Golders Green – Most of this seat is an approximate successor to the seat that Baroness Thatcher represented for 33 years – yet in 1997 it went red. Labour’s Rudi Vis held the seat from 1997 to 2010, when Mike Freer won with a healthy majority. Yet a shock poll by Lord Ashcroft this week puts Mr Freer 2% behind his Labour opponent Sarah Sackman. Since the poll was carried out over Passover, it is likely flawed, and it would be a huge shock for Labour to have overturned a 12% majority. Because of this poll, and because it was Maggie Thatcher’s seat, expect the media to be shocked that Mike Freer holds on. Tory hold.